Modelled impact of shifting US food sales

Context

Poor diets are the leading cause of mortality in the US and are associated with a substantial share of healthcare costs. Packaged food and beverage companies have considerable influence over the nutritional quality of the products available to consumers, and, consequently, over the wider food environment.

ATNi assesses the nutritional quality of product portfolios of some of the world’s largest food and beverage companies. Findings from the Global Index 2024 demonstrate that there is considerable variation in the healthiness of products available within the same food and drink categories.

Building on this research, ATNi and ShareAction have partnered on a modelling project, with technical support from Nesta, to explore the potential health impact of shifting sales of packaged food and beverages towards healthier products.

The project brings together information on the nutritional quality of packaged foods with population health modelling. The aim is to explore how changes in the nutritional composition of products already available on the US market could translate into changes in dietary intake and, ultimately, diet-related health outcomes.

Assess the nutritional profile of packaged food and beverage products

16,000 products were included in the analysis across a range of food and drink categories;
Products were included from 24 major food and beverage companies active in the US market;
Nutritional quality was assessed using the Health Star Rating.

2. Model a shift towards healthier product sales

Hypothetical scenarios were modelled where food and beverage sales shifted towards the healthiest 50% of products available on the US market;
The modelling included how these shifts could change the average nutritional composition of products sold, with focus on energy, saturated fat, salt and fibre;
In turn, the model estimated corresponding changes in the average daily dietary intake across the population.

3. Estimate potential population health impacts

Estimates for population health impacts were calculated using the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME).
The analysis examines potential effects of deaths linked to diet-related noncommunicable diseases and the economic value of productive working years, across food and drink categories.

4. Translate the evidence into action

Supporting food and beverage companies, investors, policymakers, and civil society with actionable insights and recommendations to contribute to healthier food environments.

Launch Event

🗓️ Tuesday, 29 September 2026
🕒 16:00 CEST, 15:00 BST, 10:00 EDT
📍 Online (Zoom)

Register here

Timeline

The projected timeline for this project is 2025 to 2026. Project findings will be published and launched in Q3 2026.

Contact

For more information linked to the project, please reach out to:

Mark Wijne – Director of Research and Programmes mark.wijne@atni.org

What if healthier packaged foods became the norm?

Project Aims & Activities